The Final Four is full of heavy hitters and the absolute best chance to end up on the Iron Throne. We only have one huge upset with Arya taking down Cersei, but what else were we going to do? Arya might not want the Throne, but if she has Cersei’s face, then it’s possible that she sits on the Throne….at least for a minute, but doesn’t that count? Let’s get right down to it and find out who is going to the finals.
Jon Snow (1) vs Tyrion Lannister (4)
Our sole purpose here is to determine who has the best chance to end up on the Iron Throne at the end of the final season. Part of this exercise is to determine who has the best chances to die in the process of all of the battles in the final season. Jon Snow is clearly a bad ass when it comes to fighting with swords, but out of everyone else, he’s also the best chance to lead the charge into every last fight left to come. He’s not sending his men into battle against the Night King without him out front. He’s not sending his men into battle against the Lannister army without him out front. That’s just not who he is, he can’t help it. Can we really pick him as the favorite if he’s the most likely to sacrifice himself for someone else and will have every opportunity to do so since he’ll be in literally every single fight we have left?
In your heart of hearts, when the series is over, do you really see Jon alive at the end sitting on or next to the Iron Throne? What about the show (which has already killed him once) or the books (GRRM will murder your dog if he has the chance) has guided you to the point that you think Jon is alive at the end of the series? I’m waiting…..still waiting…..yeah I get it, you are grasping at small plot points that leave him alive. There is a better chance that he jumps on a dragon, fucks up the army of the dead, and then gets murdered jumping in harms way when it comes to take family. A much better chance than him racing Dany into the throne room to call “dibs” on the Iron Throne. There just is. I’m sorry if you are just now coming to this realization, but this isn’t going to end well….err….happy.
So we just had this exercise with Jon where he’s brave and will be in the middle of the shit, so now let’s apply this to Tyrion. He’s brave, no doubt about it, but he’s not a fighter. What battlefield is he going to walk out on at this point? Tyrion has been in battles and has the giant face scar to prove it, but he’s not a fighter and as Hand of the Queen he’s not supposed to be. He is there to guide the Queen down the best path to the Throne the then advise her for the good of the people once she makes it. That leaves him out of the path of the bad shit coming. Now, is there a chance that some of the army of dead fucker gets into the castle where he is and he feels compelled to protect everyone? Sure, that is absolutely plausible, but not entirely likely.
George RR Martin has stated on more than one occasion that Tyrion is his favorite character and the one that he relates to the most. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t kill him off, but it does mean that it’s the least likely course of action. Tyrion is on the short list of people (no pun intended) that I can see sitting on the Iron Throne (even if it’s to keep it warm while the Jon/Dany baby to grows up) much more than I can see him dying in some way. How would he die anyway? What situation would he be killed off in? He’s not going to be in range of The Mountain without many, many other people. That’s not to say The Mountain couldn’t get to him through a crowd, but highly unlikely. I just can’t picture it, which certainly means I’m going to be blindsided and he’ll be the first one dead in the season premiere.
The winner - Jon isn’t making it to the Throne, which means the best path is Tyrion. Tyrion wins a close contest.
Daenerys Targaryen (2) vs Arya Stark (6)
Boat sex never ends well, does it? I don’t speak from experience because who has an actual boat, but when you think about boats in movies or TV, it’s always where you go to escape troubles. Joe Fox from You’ve Got Mail ended up there. Jordan Belfort almost died on one trying to protect what he had. Jaws almost killed everyone on a boat. Jack died in the water next to a boat while Rose hogged a door that was clearly big enough for two people. Gilligan had his life destroyed from a 3 hour cruise. The Ladies Man lived on one for crying out loud. My point is that nothing good has come from a boat outside of The Love Boat, and if it weren’t for Isaac the Bartender, that would even be called into question. Dany had a recent boat encounter and she is most likely pregnant and the one thing that is less safe for TV women than boats is giving birth. Women in movie seem to never survive giving birth, but nobody seems to want to call that out. Millions of children are born every single day in real life and everything is just fine, BUT have one baby during the zombie apocalypse and CARL!!!! has to murder his mom and raise Judith with his dad.
I don’t know how many more examples you need, but Dany is having a baby and that baby is going to kill her. The baby will be just fine, but Dany isn’t making it. She just isn’t. And for the record, yes I’m saying that Jon Snow isn’t going to survive and Daenerys isn’t going to survive. What else were you expecting from GRRM? What else do you need to see from him to know that the main two characters are both going to die and produce the actual prince that was promised in the process? Need more clues? The last time that a Stark and a Targaryen got together and had a baby it caused a war in which both of them died and the baby had to be hidden in the cold ass north for 20 years. I’m sure this time it will be super cool and everyone is going to be just fine he typed while frantically searching for a sarcasm font. Dany isn’t going to survive and she ends up in whatever ghost world it was that she saw Drogo and their son.
Things we don’t know about the final season are vast, but one thing I do know from the previous seasons and the trailer for this one is that Arya is a mother fucking boss. She’s smiling at dragons while the rest of the world is running from them. She out ran and the killed the Westeros version of The Terminator when she squared off against the Waif. She took out the entire House of Frey in 5 minutes. And whatever is chasing her in the trailer is bound to be #scaryAF! Arya has just a few people on her list and that will undoubtedly put her in a bad situation or two, but so what, right? Who’s seen more and done more than Arya at this point. Sure Sansa has had a rough go of it, but Arya has too and she took matters into her own hands. She might be the deadliest person left alive right now. How does that put her on the Iron Throne though?
She rolls into King’s Landing and kills The Mountain, Qyburn, and Cersei in rapid succession. She takes Cersei’s face and uses it to clear out the rest of the shitheads from Euron and The Gold Company. She walks into the throne room and decides to be super nice and send a raven to Jon Snow telling him that she gives up and he’s free to walk in and take the Throne as payment for years of injustice committed against House Stark. Jon shows up, gets handed a crown, and Cersei walks out never to be seen again. Roll Credits. Ok, ok, maybe not roll credits and maybe not exactly that way, but I bet we see Arya as Cersei sitting on the throne for a minute and a minute still counts here. That would be one minute longer than Daenerys “oh shit I just died having that baby” Targaryen. That counts as a victory.
The winner - Arya mother f**king Stark!
Stephen Balding is the founder of Cinema Soapbox. You can reach him at email@example.com