In short….nothing. The thing about the Golden Globes, which is like the fun uncle to the Academy Awards, is that some years we say that they predict what will happen on Oscar night and other times we say it has nothing to do with it. That is because some years there are home run performances that were going to win, no matter what happens. Most recently, Michael Keaton won the Globe, the SAG, and Blockbuster Kids Choice (that’s not a thing), and every other award possible for Birdman. It was Hollywood saying “you’re great and we haven’t appreciated you like we should have”, but that was until we got to the night of the Oscars. That night he lost to Eddie Redmayne and the movie world was stunned. It even caught me off-guard, but in hindsight it shouldn’t have. Oscar voters want someone who will kiss their ass and Keaton is Batman and he doesn’t give a shit about you. He also thought he was bulletproof, but if Oscar loves anything, it’s someone like Redmayne who gushes over them and is actually a terrific actor. His portrayal of Stephen Hawking was fantastic, so if it was close (which is was) then you know the Oscar is going to the person that is simply more likable. More likable to Oscar voters anyway, because Keaton is always a fan favorite.
So this year, the Golden Globes were handed out and there was no clear cut film that you know is going to rake the table at the Academy Awards. Regina King won for a fantastic performance, but when the Academy Awards are handed out can you picture anyone other than Amy Adams getting the award? King has been nominated 3 times for a Golden Globe, but Oscar can’t get enough of Amy Adams. They love her, and rightfully so, but this is another “it’s close” year and Regina King should win every award in her category. That will not happen.
So what will happen?
The only thing that I can say with certainty this year is that Alfonso Cuaron is getting nominated and will win Best Director for Roma. Roma should also get nominated for Best Picture, but I doubt that happens. Cuaron is on a different level than just about everyone else on the planet and is a full fledged genius. Genius! I have a feeling that if he didn’t direct this movie for Netflix, then it would be a much bigger deal in the awards circuit.
Outside of Cuaron, the rest of the categories are tough to predict. Rami Malek won Best Actor at the Globes, but there is no way he wins an Oscar….right? I stand by what I said about Bohemian Rhapsody…it is terrible. It is one of the worst movies I’ve seen all year and I’m not the only one who thinks that. To be fair though, several people are defending the film as fans, but I just don’t see it. Will he get nominated?
Probably a safe bet, but if he wins out over Christian Bale or Mahershala Ali it would be nothing short of a miracle. I think Bale has the best case to win the Oscar, but remember we just talked about Oscar liking people that kiss their ass and the Bale/Adam McKay combo will not be doing that. That makes the category wide open, so if voters don’t want the family controversy surrounding Green Book and Bale is already thanking Satan for inspiration to play his Vice character Dick Cheney , then who does that leave? Sigh….it leaves Malek. Again, Bohemian Rhapsody is a terrible movie and if there is controversy surrounding Ali and Bale, then who does the award go to?
Don’t rule out Robert Redford. Do you know what Hollywood loves to do? Give awards to legends for average performances as a way to reflect on how awesome Hollywood has been for 100 years. Do not be shocked when nominations are announced and Redford is there ready to pounce and give a speech about how he loves acting and not about anything surrounding diversity or women. When in doubt, never forget how shitty Hollywood has been to women and minorities and that they don’t want to be called out on it when they are giving awards to people. This cannot be ruled out.
What we know for certain is that this years awards ceremony will have controversy because it' already has some with Kevin Hart backing out as host and most of the movies have red flags around them already. There isn’t even a host at this point, so how are they going to deal with that? If it’s this close to the ceremony and there are issues finding a host, then they will not want any other possible issues for the awards. This year will be the safe choice down the board. People like Glenn Close and Robert Redford. it’s going to be a weird year, that we know for sure.
Stephen Balding is the founder of Cinema Soapbox. You can reach him at email@example.com